The LME aluminium price trend over the past 3 years shows a market rebounding from earlier weakness, trading within a varied price range and settling near a multi-year high by year-end. According to Westmetall’s LME aluminium cash price cache, 2025 kick-started with aluminium pricing of USD 2,500s per tonne, reached USD 2,685.50 per tonne by March 20, 2025, and was around USD 2,545 per tonne on August 1, 2025, amid tightening fundamentals and sustained supply concerns. LME primary aluminium cash price is closing in the year 2025 at around USD 2,800, with expectations of further increases in the coming year.
LME aluminium prices before 2025
Before entering 2025, LME aluminium prices had already undergone a pronounced boom-and-correction cycle. According to Westmetall historical cash prices, aluminium soared to an all-time high of around USD 3984 per tonne in March 2022, driven by the aftermath of the pandemic demand rebound, Europe’s energy crisis, and supply disruptions following the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
As energy markets stabilised and the demand supply gap toned down, aluminium prices began a steady descent through late 2022, averaging closer to USD 2,200-2,500 per tonne by the second half of the year, the market’s first phase of normalisation.
The downtrend continued into 2023 and persisted through much of 2024. Westmetall data further unveiled a trend for 2023 wherein LME aluminium cash prices frequently traded between USD 2,100 and USD 2,350 per tonne in 2023. The year saw weak downstream demand and high interest rates owing to high inflation, recession fears, and weakness in the construction sector.
In 2024, prices remained mostly stable, capped below USD 2,500 per tonne despite intermittent rallies. This period did not result in excessive inventory accumulation, indicating that price weakness was driven by macro pressure rather than structural oversupply. By late 2024, aluminium had completed its post-crisis correction phase, opening the door to the price recovery in 2025.
The first half of 2025
LME aluminium cash prices climbed through 2025. In the first couple of months, prices were mostly in the mid-USD 2,600s, with USD 2,638 per tonne on February 6, 2025 and modest changes during early March. Cash prices reached USD 2,660 per tonne on March 17, 2025, reflecting tighter oxide supply and emerging structural themes.
After April 2025, aluminium prices ranged between USD 2,300-2,400 per tonne band through till May and then again shot up in early summer. By July 1, cash aluminium was around USD 2,604 per tonne, reflecting renewed demand and constrained inventories.
The second half of 2025
Since the seventh month of the calendar year, the LME primary aluminium cash price has seen a more projected gain. Cash settlement prices ranged from a low of USD 2,580 to a high of USD 2,657 per tonne through July before peaking higher into autumn. Early October prices were around USD 2,713.50 per tonne on October 7, 2025, rising into the USD 2,880-2,900 per tonne range by late November and early December 2025.
The sideways moving pricing trend marks a clear uptrend in the second half of 2025 (though the first half of the year was not much different), with prices breaking out from the USD 2,400-2,600 per tonne range seen earlier in the year to approach near-USD 2,900 per tonne as inventories tightened and market perspective improved.
According to coverage of LME Week 2025, market participants cited macro support from a softer US dollar, projected rate cuts, and low inventories as bullish catalysts lifting metals prices, including aluminium prices near USD 2,800 per tonne at the start of LME Week.
Current price strength has been reinforced by ongoing worldwide structural themes. As China’s smelter capacity cap nears its 45 million t production ceiling and rising costs tied to energy and emissions regulation, they were potent enough in keeping prices elevated late in 2025.
Reuters’s forecasting narrative echoed this structural tightness, with expectations that the market could shift into deficit territory next year, supporting higher price levels into 2026.
2026 aluminium price outlook
Projecting forward to 2026, aluminium price forecasts cluster around a bullish but far from stable range.
Analyst polls and projections suggest that the average LME aluminium price will move higher in 2026. A Reuters January 2025 base metals poll indicated the aluminium price could climb to USD 2,630.4 per tonne on average in 2026 as the market transitions into deficit, expanding from a modest shortfall in 2025.
Independent forecasts extend this viewpoint, with some industry experts proposing that near USD 3,000 per tonne could be within reach in 2026 amid tight global supply, production caps, and supportive demand from electrification and infrastructure investment.
Further supporting the positive 2026 outlook are broader expertise commentary at industry gatherings, where some forecasts envisage aluminium testing or even exceeding USD 3,000 per tonne next year if structural imbalances persist and green premiums take hold in pricing frameworks.
By contrast, a more detailed research forecast unwraps aluminium prices swinging between USD 2,700-2,800 per tonne in 2026, with uncertainties tied to Chinese stimulus, Western demand growth, and inventory cycles.
Inventory, supply variables, and price risk into 2026
Fundamental supply-demand drivers include LME warehouse stocks tightening through 2025, starting the year with 634,650 tonnes, dipping to 337,900 tonnes in June, and then recovering to 529,600 tonnes in December (last updated on December 18).
The Chinese government-imposed domestic production cap, coupled with constrained new capacity investment globally, feeds directly into aluminium price resilience as 2026 approaches.
At the same time, regulatory shifts like the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) scheduled for 2026 and anticipated low-carbon premiums on the LME aim to boost pricing for sustainable aluminium production, impacting the manner in which the market perceives future price discovery and structural tightness.
Price trend synthesis: from past to future
The cumulative data shows cash prices rising from below USD 2,400 per tonne in early 2025 to very close to touching the USD 2,900s per tonne band by year-end.
Consensus forecasts suggest further upward movement through 2026, with analysts targeting average prices in the USD 2,700-2,900 per tonne range. With stringent market policies across the globe awaiting in 2026, and the grave hit of tariffs to the aluminium market, a breakout to USD 3,000 per tonne would not be much surprising, if structural imbalances deepen and inventories remain constrained.
This fact-based view of the LME aluminium price trend, from past volatility to near-term strength and a constructive 2026 forecast, reaffirms that aluminium remains among the base metals with firm pricing momentum and resilient fundamental support.
Source：AL Circle