Aluminium packaging didn’t arrive in the sustainability conversation by chance. Over time, it has developed into one of the most important pillars of modern sustainable packaging. Light, durable and recyclable, it sits at the center of food, beverage and pharmaceutical supply chains.
Its strongest advantage is protection. Aluminium shields products from light, oxygen, moisture and contaminants, helping preserve quality and extend shelf life. Because it can be recycled repeatedly without losing integrity, it consumes far less energy than primary production and reduces greenhouse gas emissions. As consumers shift toward greener choices, aluminium has gradually become a foundation of the circular economy, closely aligned with global sustainability ambitions.
When policy collides with cost
The powerful sustainability narrative has run into a new challenge. In the United States, tariffs on aluminium imports first rose to 25 per cent in March 2025 and then doubled to 50 per cent by June. Overnight, cans, foils, trays and closures became more expensive and volatility moved through the supply chain.
Some food and beverage manufacturers begun adjusting their packaging mix, looking for cheaper options and some started modifying their operations. Read: ALuminium in Packaging: Consumer Trends and Market Dynamics for a broader perspective.
Even with disruption, the market refuses to shrink
What stands out is that demand has not collapsed. In 2024, the packaging sector used 18.5 million tonnes of aluminium. Beverage cans accounted for 7.05 million tonnes. Pharmaceuticals packaging used 660.8 thousand tonnes, with expectations that this will rise to 781.4 thousand tonnes by 2030. Foil usage reached 6.6 million tonnes.
On the consumption side, about 470 billion beverage cans were used in 2024, with projections of 627 billion units by 2030. They are valued at USD 55.7 billion in 2024 and expected to reach USD 60.5 billion in 2025, before increasing further to USD 84.6 billion by 2030. To access more accurate data, pre book our report: Global Aluminium Industry Outlook 2026. That same year also saw 9.24 billion aerosol cans and 22 billion coffee capsules.
Linked markets continue to expand. The global aluminium coffee capsule market rose from about USD 1.4 billion in 2023 to an estimated USD 1.51 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach around USD 2.5 billion by 2030. Aluminium collapsible tubes, valued at around USD 1.28 billion in 2024, are forecast to grow to approximately USD 1.78 billion by 2030, driven by pharmaceuticals, cosmetics and personal care.
The aluminium aerosol can market shows a steady climb, rising from USD 4.25 billion in 2024 to USD 4.56 billion in 2025 (about 7.3 per cent), then to USD 4.84 billion in 2026 (6.1 per cent) and USD 5.14 billion in 2027 (around 6.2 per cent). Growth continues at roughly 6 per cent a year, reaching USD 5.45 billion in 2028, USD 5.78 billion in 2029 and USD 6.13 billion by 2030 - adding up to about 44 per cent expansion over the period.
Where costs bite, strategies change
For many producers, tariffs are no longer abstract policy - they are reshaping operations. The Can Manufacturers Institute argues that tariffs on aluminium and steel lift the cost of metals used to produce cans. Since the US does not make enough of the required grades, imports fill the gap - and higher import prices move directly through the system. Margins in metal packaging are thin, and sharp cost rises remove flexibility.
Conagra Brands, which uses aluminium cans and foil trays for Hunt’s and Chef Boyardee, reports a 7 per cent year-over-year increase in input costs, partly linked to tariffs. Around 3 per cent of its total 2025 input costs are tied to tariffs. The company has trimmed its earnings outlook, pushed cost-cutting, diversified sourcing and applied selective price increases.
Cosmetics companies are feeling the strain as well. Estée Lauder and L’Oréal rely on aluminium for premium packaging such as aerosols and compact cases. Estée Lauder has faced raw material increases of up to 30 per cent, prompting modest price adjustments and a shift toward lighter composite solutions. L’Oréal, importing large volumes of aluminium components from China, is managing per-unit cost increases of 15–20 per cent.
Beverage producers are watching closely. For Coca-Cola, higher aluminium prices across billions of cans matter - and the company has signaled that if costs stay high, more products could move into PET plastic bottles. It is not an exit from cans, but a practical hedge.
Where resilience shows through
Alongside these pressures, there are also examples of companies finding ways to manage. Ball Corporation, the world’s largest aluminium can maker, has handled tariffs through price pass-throughs, more local sourcing and 70 per cent recycled content, calling the effect “minimal” and “manageable,” with earnings pressure of roughly a cent per can. It supplies Del Monte, PepsiCo, Coca-Cola and Constellation Brands.
Beverage packaging sales in North and Central America rose to USD 1.64 billion from USD 1.46 billion. Demand for Ball’s aluminium cups and bottles stayed firm as sustainability-focused consumers preferred recyclable options over plastic and tin-coated steel. Global aluminium packaging shipments grew 3.9 per cent, just below 4.1 per cent in the previous quarter, as tariffs pushed up input costs.
Ball said tariffs remain manageable and it is working with customers to smooth aluminium premium volatility. The company reaffirmed 2025 comparable earnings growth of 12-15 per cent, while quarterly revenue rose nearly 9 per cent to USD 3.38 billion versus USD 3.31 billion expected, according to LSEG.
Ardagh Metal Packaging expects only a “minimal impact” from US tariffs, saying less than a cent per can is likely to be passed on to consumers. It has lifted its full-year shipment forecast to 3-4 per cent growth and raised Adjusted EBITDA guidance from USD 695-720 million in Q1 to USD 720-735 million by Q3. With fully domestic North American operations and localized suppliers and customers, the company has been able to recover input costs while delivering an 8 per cent increase in Americas volumes in the first quarter.
CANPACK and Silgan Holdings have also shown resilience. CANPACK benefits from tariff-free European production, while Silgan relies on a diversified metal and plastic portfolio supported by acquisitions. Both companies maintain aluminium packaging volumes through supply chains using more than 70 per cent recycled content and by focusing on premium segments, echoing the broader resilience seen among peers.
Analysis
The outlook still points upward. Forecasts suggest demand will keep growing, helped by aluminium’s ability to protect products, its light weight and the fact that it can be recycled endlessly - all of which fit well with brands’ sustainability goals.
Across beverages, personal care and wider consumer goods, aluminium remains deeply embedded. Tariffs may slow the pace, but they are unlikely to shift the industry’s course. The impact, however, isn’t uniform: the industrial side has managed the pressure relatively well, while consumer-focused products have felt the pinch - and that could mean higher prices in some cases.
Aluminium stays central to packaging, and even though prices are expected to rise, demand is set to remain strong as consumption follows an upward graph.
Source：AL Circle