The aluminium can story today is no longer just about growth-it is about what happens after consumption. The market, valued at USD 55.5 billion in 2023, moved up to USD 58.2 billion in 2024 and is estimated to reach USD 61.5 billion in 2025, with projections pointing to USD 85.6 billion by 2032.

At the same time, usage keeps climbing. From about 470 billion aluminium cans in 2024, global consumption is set to touch 510 billion in 2025 and could reach 627 billion by 2030. That steady rise is putting pressure on systems worldwide-not just to produce more, but to recover more.

And that is already happening. A group of countries has pushed aluminium can recycling rates beyond 90 per cent, spread across Asia, North America, and South America. Each operates differently, yet the outcome is strikingly similar-high recovery, year after year. Which brings the bigger question into focus: is it policy, infrastructure, or behaviour that makes the difference-or simply how well they come together?

Japan: stability with circular precision

Japan presents a different narrative-flat demand, but exceptional recycling efficiency. Demand has remained largely flat for years, with around 21.5 billion cans expected in 2025.

Yet recycling efficiency is where it stands apart. In the first half of 2025, the rate reached 99.8 per cent, with 75.7 per cent of cans going straight back into new cans. That closed loop keeps material in circulation and cuts emissions without needing higher consumption.

There is also constant fine-tuning. A 2024 collaboration between Toyo Seikan Group Holdings, Sumitomo Realty & Development, and UACJ Corporation showed that producing 100 per cent recycled aluminium cans is not just theoretical. At the same time, municipal systems and national rules keep responsibilities clearly distributed.

Even beyond domestic use, Japan remains active in scrap trade, exporting over 207,000 tons in H1 2025. With a USD 4.28 trillion economy behind it, the system is less about scale and more about precision.

China: policy-led expansion

China’s approach looks different-less uniform, more policy-driven. In H1 2025, recycling rates stood at around 98 per cent, supported by regulatory changes rather than a single nationwide system.

One shift in particular made an impact. In October 2024, recycled aluminium meeting technical standards was no longer treated as solid waste. From November onward, this allowed smoother scrap imports. Alongside this, broader plans such as the 14th Five-Year Plan and the 2025-2027 Aluminium Industry Action Plan are targeting more than 15 million tons of recycled aluminium annually by 2027.

Collection systems vary widely-from smart city-level bins to semi-formal networks-but the direction is consistent. Instead of focusing only on cans, China is building a larger secondary aluminium ecosystem, backed by an economy nearing USD 19.6 trillion.

Brazil: scale meets social strength

Brazil’s performance is less about a single milestone and more about sustained excellence. Recycling rates have stayed above 95 per cent for over 15 years, reaching 97.3 per cent in the first half of 2025.

Volumes remain high. About 16.5 billion cans were sold in H1 2025, roughly 6 billion litres, a slight 0.7 per cent increase year-on-year. For the full year, volumes stood at 34.1 billion units, close to the 34.8 billion seen in 2024.

But the real story sits outside factories. More than 800,000 waste pickers drive collection and sorting, forming the backbone of the system. Around them sits a decentralised network of recyclers and processors, supported by companies such as Ardagh, Ball Corporation, CANPACK, and Crown Holdings, which together operate 17 facilities. Policies like the Selective Tax and Recycling Incentive Law, along with updated technical standards, keep the system moving efficiently. 

Indonesia

Indonesia’s aluminium can recycling rate now stands at roughly 96 per cent, and much of that comes down to how collection actually happens on the ground.

Waste pickers and small scrap collectors still do most of the heavy lifting when it comes to gathering used cans. At the same time, Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) rules are starting to put more pressure on companies and local authorities to deal with packaging waste in a more organized way.

The system isn’t fully streamlined yet, but it is moving in that direction, with better sorting and clearer routes for used cans to return to production.

Mexico

Mexico posted an aluminium can recycling rate of 95.7 per cent in the first half of 2025, although its overall system is still developing.

Over the past couple of years, the focus has been on expanding collection networks, improving how materials are sorted, and tying recycled aluminium into lower-carbon production. Unlike several countries with similar recovery rates, Mexico does not have a nationwide deposit return system. Instead, progress is coming through partnerships and gradual improvements across the chain. With a projected GDP of about USD 2.12 trillion, it remains a market that is steadily building its recycling capacity.

Philippines and Malaysia

Both countries sit at around 95 per cent, but they are getting there in different ways.

In the Philippines, the push is coming from the ground up. Cebu City is preparing an ordinance that would pay around P1 per aluminium can, encouraging households and waste-bank participants to separate cans from general waste. Similar efforts-often led by local governments or retail spaces-are helping shift more material into formal recycling channels.

Malaysia is moving through technology. Dedicated used-beverage-can (UBC) recycling lines-equipped with shredders, hammer mills, and decoating furnaces-are designed specifically for aluminium cans. By removing coatings and improving purity before melting, these systems make recycling more efficient and the output more consistent.

Peru

Peru, with a recycling rate of about 94 per cent, shows how industry and community efforts can align.

Programmes like PepsiCo Latin America’s “Recycling with Purpose” combine collection points, awareness campaigns, and financial incentives to improve recovery. A key element is the inclusion of informal recyclers. Through partnerships with organizations such as Ciudad Saludable, thousands have been brought into the formal system.

Cambodia

Cambodia’s recycling rate stands at around 90 per cent, with recent efforts focused on structure rather than scale.

Policies in 2025 are aimed at formalising informal waste pickers-locally known as “edjai”-while tightening rules around scrap imports and exports. At the same time, collection and sorting systems are being organized more systematically, with the goal of keeping more aluminium within the country instead of exporting it as scrap.

Thailand

Thailand’s aluminium can recycling rate, at about 86 per cent, reflects how closely its industry is stitched together. Progress here has come less from policy push and more from coordination across the supply chain.

Companies like Thai Beverage Can (TBC) work in sync with collectors, sorting units, remelters, and rolling mills, creating a loop where used cans are channelled back into making new can sheet. This structure helps retain material within the system instead of letting it slip into lower-value applications.

Pakistan

Pakistan’s recycling rate, near 85 per cent, is largely a result of economics at work rather than a formalized framework.

A significant share of collection happens through informal networks, backed by an active scrap market that keeps aluminium in circulation. Even without a nationwide deposit return system, the material’s value ensures it is rarely discarded.

At the same time, Pakistan Aluminium Beverage Cans (PABC) has scaled up its capacity to around 1.3 billion cans annually. This expansion is creating steady demand for aluminium, which in turn supports recycling, as collected scrap continues to find its way back into production.

Source：AL Circle