Aluminium extrusion industry eyes 43Mt by 2032 amidst ongoing tariff scenario

The aluminium extrusion industry is carving out a space as one of the fastest-growing sectors in the global aluminium value chain. As demand soars across a range of applications, from transportation and construction to renewable energy, industrial sectors, and consumer products, the industry is positioning itself for a strong future. The turbulence caused by the pandemic seems to have set the stage for an even more resilient recovery, with global usage set to reach 35 million tonnes in 2024 and forecasts suggesting an impressive rise to 43 million tonnes by 2032.

Yet, the road ahead is not without its challenges. Geopolitical tensions, a cooling construction sector, economic stagnation in key regions, and persistently high energy costs continue to test the industry's mettle. While energy prices have somewhat stabilised after the peak of the crisis years, they remain stubbornly high in many regions, adding another layer of complexity for manufacturers and suppliers. These factors have altered market dynamics, reshaping supply chains and creating an atmosphere of unpredictability.

Despite the turbulence, growth is undeniably on the horizon. The global aluminium extrusion market is poised to expand steadily from 2024 to 2032, with each region experiencing different growth rates.

China, the largest consumer of aluminium extrusion, is expected to see its usage climb from around 22 million tonnes in 2024 to approximately 28 million tonnes by 2032, marking a CAGR of 3.16 per cent. Meanwhile, Rest of Asia Pacific (ROAP) is estimated to experience the fastest growth, with a CAGR of 3.62 per cent, rising from 3 million tonnes in 2024 to around 4 million tonnes by 2032.

The Middle East and Africa, although a relatively smaller market, will see a growth rate of CAGR 3.84 per cent, moving from around 1.64 million tonnes in 2024 to nearly 2 million tonnes by 2032.

In the Americas, North America is expected to grow moderately, with usage increasing from approximately 3 million tonnes to around 2.93 million tonnes over the same period, representing a CAGR of 2.29 per cent.

South America also shows a similar modest growth, with usage moving from 0.86 million tonnes to 0.90 million tonnes by 2032, growing at 3.24 per cent.

Europe, on the other hand, is set to grow at a slower pace, from nearby 3 million tonnes in 2024 to almost 4 million tonnes by 2032, a CAGR of 1.91 per cent. Overall, global aluminium extrusion usage is projected to surge from 34 million tonnes in 2024 to nearly 43.6 million tonnes by 2032, reflecting a robust CAGR of 3.05 per cent.

Aluminium extrusion demand is set to expand steadily across multiple end-use sectors through 2032. Transportation will remain the fastest-growing driver, recording a strong CAGR of 4.74 per cent, while industrial usage is close behind with a CAGR of 4.54 per cent. The electrical and electronics sector will also see healthy progress, advancing at 3.18 per cent CAGR, and consumer durables are projected to rise at 2.73 per cent CAGR. Other applications, including aerospace and automotive, are expected to grow at 3.42 per cent CAGR. Meanwhile, building and construction, though expanding at a more moderate pace, will still add significant volumes with a CAGR of 2.07 per cent. Together, these figures highlight the diverse growth momentum underpinning the aluminium extrusion market to 2032.

The recent wave of tariffs on aluminium extrusions has thrown global trade into disarray, altering how prices are set and where investments flow.  When the US imposed import duties in March 2025, prices spiked almost overnight. Domestic producers suddenly found themselves in a stronger position, while American buyers quickly turned to regional suppliers. A second round of tariff hikes in mid-2025 locked in this protectionist trend even further.

At the same time, other major markets began launching anti-dumping and countervailing duty investigations, adding new layers of uncertainty. Supply chains that once felt stable suddenly had to be rethought. For an industry built on exports and extremely sensitive to even minor cost changes, the impact has been swift, jarring, and painful.

Like in FY2024, India shipped close to 200,000 tonnes of aluminium to the United States, worth nearly USD 894 million. Of this, downstream exports alone accounted for 84,850 tonnes, up from 53,633 tonnes in 2020, a rise of 31 per cent over five years. That momentum has stalled abruptly. The sudden escalation of tariffs this year has made most of those shipments unviable, pushing producers to scramble for alternative markets. Executives warn that exports to the US could fall by more than 40 per cent in 2025, a sharp contraction now reverberating through Karnataka’s extrusion hubs.

Speaking at a press conference in Bengaluru on August 18, ALEMAI President Jitendra Chopra stated –

“Around 20 to 25 Indian manufacturers export aluminium extrusions to the United States and other global markets, but the impact of the 50 per cent US tariff is more than moderate. In such a scenario, when India is already grappling with both tariff barriers abroad and a surge of cheap imports at home, there is a strong case for the government to respond with firmer policy measures.

The long-term growth of India’s aluminium extrusion industry ultimately depends on strengthening domestic consumption. By boosting local demand, the industry can achieve economies of scale, improve cost competitiveness, and effectively offset the pressures created by external tariffs.

The high tariffs by the US are a challenge, but a bigger challenge is the under-utilisation of domestic manufacturing capacity due to cheap imports. The total installed aluminium extrusion capacity in India is 3.5 million tonnes per annum, but the utilisation is only around 2 million tonnes, with the remaining 1.5 million tonnes imported.”

He added that while steep US tariffs are painful, a deeper problem lies in the chronic under-utilisation of capacity. India has 3.5 million tonnes of installed extrusion capacity, yet only about 2 million tonnes are produced locally, the rest is displaced by imports. Karnataka itself produces over 1,079,875 tonnes, with Jindal Aluminium alone contributing nearly 12,000 tonnes each month.

The setback comes at an already fragile moment. India’s overall aluminium exports dropped 19 per cent year-on-year in FY2025, slipping to 2.24 million tonnes owing to weak global demand and increased tariff barriers. Karnataka, which plays an important role in supplying extrusions for automotive, construction, and electronics, has been hit from both ends, losing its US customer base while also facing an influx of under-priced Chinese imports.

Despite an 8.25 per cent import duty, Chinese extrusions continue to enter India at below-cost prices. For many mid-sized units in Karnataka, already running on thin margins, the pressure is existential. As one executive remarked at a recent Bengaluru trade meet: “The US has shut the door, and China is flooding the room.”

Source：AL Circle